Saturday, July 12, 2008

Obama and McCain breaking even

Obama and McCain virtually even in tracking polls.

Numbers from tracking polls for President are like the popular vote itself. Obama, like Kerry and Gore before him, will win New York City by a massive margin that will skew the overall percentages. In 2000, Bush lost the overall popular vote by 500,000 but lost New York City by more than 1 million. We won outside the 5 boroughs and won the election.  

I would think that breaking even in the popular polls means Obama is actually behind when that translates to electoral votes.