Numbers from tracking polls for President are like the popular vote itself. Obama, like Kerry and Gore before him, will win New York City by a massive margin that will skew the overall percentages. In 2000, Bush lost the overall popular vote by 500,000 but lost New York City by more than 1 million. We won outside the 5 boroughs and won the election.
I would think that breaking even in the popular polls means Obama is actually behind when that translates to electoral votes.